Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.552059 22.306904 24.201409 26.408940 28.923590 31.714472 35.067974
2025-08-31 17.584423 19.958739 22.700110 26.139259 30.396587 35.574162 42.476791
2025-09-07 15.566838 18.261912 21.535097 25.886301 31.652876 39.241858 50.370478
2025-09-14 14.134517 17.015784 20.658709 25.737272 32.870405 42.940756 59.091858
2025-09-21 12.959433 15.922698 19.791695 25.400013 33.674192 46.099451 67.749121
2025-09-28 12.458072 15.629617 19.910695 26.378494 36.447175 52.664280 83.865465
2025-10-05 11.690417 14.889992 19.315390 26.211308 37.398675 56.451311 96.289682
2025-10-12 11.061350 14.279926 18.830137 26.124077 38.422994 60.527476 110.813600
2025-10-19 10.628722 13.906499 18.643194 26.458260 40.176988 66.303549 131.695628
2025-10-26 10.123838 13.386950 18.185550 26.289564 40.996038 70.418518 150.639160
2025-11-02 9.645286 12.871531 17.688594 25.992766 41.518456 74.023027 170.291362
2025-11-09 9.288868 12.513889 17.405867 26.023752 42.658922 79.271177 198.607111
2025-11-16 8.893600 12.080749 16.982764 25.785792 43.275297 83.593439 227.922890
2025-11-23 8.532499 11.680303 16.585436 25.556668 43.884502 88.124554 262.850554
2025-11-30 8.201045 11.307396 16.207153 25.324121 44.452722 92.755311 304.004016
2025-12-07 7.913831 10.988200 15.895787 25.184590 45.203894 98.166559 357.230468
2025-12-14 7.616249 10.636991 15.507400 24.859694 45.484336 102.324751 410.954057
2025-12-21 7.555876 10.662354 15.760830 25.808425 48.919554 117.739594 581.722696
2025-12-28 7.319188 10.387841 15.474481 25.646789 49.618909 124.372487 705.707742
2026-01-04 7.110489 10.149436 15.236994 25.562408 50.504839 132.135524 879.363220
2026-01-11 6.975666 10.026895 15.197673 25.886162 52.524365 145.364794 1222.804954
2026-01-18 6.779265 9.791998 14.941084 25.722780 53.198460 153.492136 1570.939266
2026-01-25 6.577433 9.539643 14.639075 25.435270 53.483855 160.160756 1992.350800